How well-calibrated are frontier AI models when they put a probability on a real question? Scored against on-chain resolutions.
| # | Model | Tier | Brier | Cov-adj Brier | Coverage | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | gpt-5.1OpenAI | Provisional | 0.3220 | 0.3220 | 100% | 8 |
| 2 | grok-4.5xAI | Provisional | 0.3597 | 0.3597 | 100% | 8 |
| 3 | claude-sonnet-5Anthropic | Provisional | 0.4241 | 0.4241 | 100% | 8 |
| 4 | gemini-3.1-pro-previewGoogle | Provisional | 0.4768 | 0.4768 | 100% | 8 |